Potiphar12's Blog
An Octogenarian in the modern world

BORIS. WHAT NEXT?

Is it possible for the confusion over Brexit to be worse today than it was yesterday? apparently, YES. One result of the confusion is that emotional decision-making looks a better option than ever. I want OUT, and I believe BORIS has a good chance of delivering. The opposition seeks to make a NO DEAL exit impossible. Boris wants it to stay on the table.

I have often found it valuable to imagine that an event HAS HAPPENED or HAS NOT HAPPENED and then review the new set of options. So, suppose that parliament has somehow made it illegal for Boris to get a NO-DEAL Brexit and compelled him to ask for an extension. What will he do?

EITHER he gives in to parliament and asks for, and gets, an extension. Then we will be right back to the moment when Theresa May gave in and the EU will  as intransigent as ever.  I don’t think Boris will do that. It’s not his style.

OR he calls a general election. Many of his utterances recently have been about changes  he would like to make in our society and that suggests an election is in his mind. 

If he calls a general election, two results are possible.

EITHER he wins. Jump forward mentally and imagine it. His position will be stronger and he will be able to tell the EU I CAN GET THIS THROUGH PARLIAMENT BUT I CAN NOT GET THAT THROUGH PARLIAMENT. The EU may then be more accommodating. If they are not, and NO DEAL is the only option, what happens to the law that has supposedly been passed to make it impossible?

OR he looses and a Labour-led government is formed. Then there will be another attempt to reach a deal, with as little hope of success as ever. There might also be a second referendum.

So my wish-list runs.

  1. Attempts to block NO DEAL fail and independence Day happens with or without a deal on 31st October.
  2. If my (1) does not happen, then the Tories win a general election with a decent majority and Independence Day arrives on 31st October, possibly with a better deal than anything offered so far.
  3. We are OUT and can go our own way.

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